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· $30 Billion Market for Air, Water, Energy Products for Hydrogen Production by 2030
· Air Pollution Control is Checkers but Climate Change is Chess
· $60 Billion Annual Market for Air, Water, Energy (AWE) Products and Services for Hydrogen
$30 Billion Market for Air, Water, Energy Products for Hydrogen Production by 2030
By 2030 there will be over 200 million tons of hydrogen produced under the Net Zero climate change program. Hydrogen sales will generate revenues of over $300 billion. This will require purchases of pumps, valves, compressors, adsorbers, instrumentation, controls, catalysts and filters totaling more than $30 billion
The IEA forecast for 2030 projects electrolysis as the largest production mode followed by fossil fuels (mostly natural gas) without carbon capture. An equal amount will be produced with carbon capture and sequestration. A relatively small amount will be produced with carbon capture and beneficial utilization.
McIlvaine believes that biomass including waste can be a significant source of hydrogen. An analysis has been prepared showing 20 million tons of biomass based hydrogen by 2030.
AWE product sales for hydrogen production could exceed $30 billion in 2030. One variable is the mix of technologies. The relative AWE revenues per ton of hydrogen for electrolyzers is tiny compared to fossil with CCS. So electrolyzers will not be a significant source of AWE revenue compared to the other production processes.
It should be noted that these estimates are only for hydrogen production. Separate estimates are being made for hydrogen liquefaction, transport, storage and combustion. For electrolyzer produced hydrogen the AWE products for liquefaction, storage, and transport will be greater than for production.
The detailed forecasts are provided in AWE Markets explained at http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/n064-air-gas-water-fluid-treatment-and-control-world-market
Forecasts for specific AWE products are explained at www.mcilvainecompany.com and then click on markets at the top of the page.
Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
Air Pollution Control is Checkers but Climate Change is Chess
The fight against air pollution has been greatly hampered by an opponent making unanticipated moves. Climate change is an opponent with the capability of making so many unanticipated moves, that is chess and not checkers.
When cigarette advertisements extolled the health benefits, air pollution control focused on limiting the emission of large particles. The harm from SO2 was perceived as forest destruction and damage to buildings.
The move by the opponent was to react the SO2 with ambient ammonia and other chemicals in the atmosphere which created fine particulate. These particles, the size of cigarette smoke, are now arguably the largest pollutant killer of people.
The challenge in air pollution control has been to use the niche experts in many fields to develop a winning strategy. With climate change the number of needed niche experts is many times more.
Air pollution experts were not wrong but those who came to the conclusions were. When the global warming game expanded to climate change and the potential that a 50 ppm increase in CO2 can cause both drought and floods, it is definitely chess and not checkers.
If fighting climate change is a chess game then the strategy has to deal with the potential for the opponent to pursue a number of unanticipated tactics. The strategy needs to be flexible to handle whatever tactic is employed by the opponent. It also needs to be one based on winning the game even if pawns are sacrificed along the way.
Solar and wind are obvious tactics. If long term storage becomes economic, they can be the queen and bishops in the game. However, there are many citizens of the world without electricity. Fossil fired power is the quickest way to provide them with what they need.
The most flexible approach is one where carbon negative technologies are also employed. This eliminates a tipping point.
Carbon negative approaches involve biomass. The trees or plants absorb CO2 as they grow. If they are then combusted and the CO2 sequestered the CO2 in the atmosphere is reduced. This technology is labeled Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (BECCS)
Solar and wind are carbon neutral. So is biomass combustion. Sequestration can be a subsequent move. Solid fuel boilers and gas turbines can be utilized. The problem is that if you tear down existing fossil plants you eliminate possibly one of the best moves.
With a fossil fired boiler you can incrementally replace coal with biomass. With a gas turbine you can incrementally increase the percentage of hydrogen burned. This can come from biomass gasification. You can also burn syngas from biomass.
Very little capital cost is required to switch a coal fired boiler to burn biomass. Little time is required for the conversion. A number of gas turbines are hydrogen ready.
The UK has embraced this flexible strategy. The 4000 MW Drax station now is carbon neutral with biomass combustion. By 2030 this one station will sequester CO2 and meet the national carbon negative goals.
More new coal fired plants are being built in Asia than ever existed in the U.S. and Europe. At nominal increased cost these plants could be made biomass ready from inception. They can switch gradually to 100 percent biomass combustion. Eventually they can capture and sequester the CO2.
If all the world’s coal plants and gas turbines switched to BECCS, the CO2 content in the atmosphere would go down as rapidly as it rose.
This flexible game strategy will be able to deal with the surprises which are sure to come. To say that we knew nothing at the cigarette peak but now know everything would be very unwise. The climate change opponent will inevitably surprise us.
We don’t want to be like Cheshire, Ohio which benefited not only from SO2 reduction from the nearby power plant but also from a new NOx control system. The benefit was short lived since a catalytic reaction spewed sulfuric acid on the town and made it uninhabitable. Better NOx catalysts solved the problem but not before cities around the country experienced similar problems.
The McIlvaine Company tracks all the technology and projects in http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/42ei-utility-tracking-system
Market forecasts for all the air, water, and energy products and services required for net zero are described under markets at www.mcilvainecompany.com
For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at 847 226 2391.
$60 Billion Annual Market for Air, Water, Energy (AWE) Products and Services for Hydrogen
There is a hydrogen based annual market for valves, pumps, filters, compressors and digital solutions of more than $60 billion. This will involve products which are just now being tailored to handle the physical, chemical, and safety aspects of the lightest of all gases.
One result is that most of the AWE products will be bigger and more expensive than if combusting methane.
AWE product vendors will have a $200 billion opportunity to combine the hydrogen specific products with standard AWE products in the same projects. For example, the ultrapure water and wastewater treatment valves will be unchanged. However, the successful valve vendor is likely to be the supplier who can furnish all the valve needs. In any case the total valve market expands.
One option is green hydrogen using electrolyzers. The main use of AWE products is in the transportation and storage of the hydrogen and final end use but not in the creation. On the other-hand blue hydrogen with ammonia production, carbon sequestration, ocean transport and use in combustion turbines requires a bigger AWE investment than does a coal fired boiler.
The market has been broadly segmented into power, industrial, and mobile. In each case the fuel production, transport and storage has been included. Only 20% of the market represents products which have to be designed to handle hydrogen. In the case of a hydrogen fueled power plant only 10% of the AWE products would have to be hydrogen ready (special).
Suppliers need a novel approach to keep up with all the technological, business, and regulatory developments. McIlvaine is working with the consultants, suppliers, purchasers, and the media to set up a large number of Industrial Internet of Wisdom Causation Loops. These are similar to ones already in use for plasma fractionation, indoor air filtration, and a few other subjects.
Causation loops are also being initiated for competing approaches such as BECCS.
In each loop McIlvaine is providing the detailed forecasts and acting as a catalyst to assist the the suppliers develop superior products. It is also working with media and event organizers to publish cost of ownership factors and help validate the products.
One set of loops is the use of hydrogen in combustion turbines. Details on this initiative are shown at HYDROGEN COMBUSTION
The detailed forecasts for each product such as valves, pumps, compressors, filters and digital solutions are available for hydrogen combustion. There is the opportunity for the media, suppliers, consultants, and end users to participate.
For more information on this program contact
Bob McIlvaine
847 226 2391
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
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