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Large Growth in Air, Water, and Combustion Revenues in the Power Industry
Air, water, and combustion (AWC) product purchases for a wind or solar plant are small compared to those for a coal plant. Since the projected capacity for wind and solar is large and the projected capacity increases for coal and nuclear plants are modest, it seems logical that the power AWC markets will be unattractive compared to other markets.
There are two reasons why the market will be attractive. The first is that it is a very large market presently. The second is that the net zero CO2 initiative will require technologies with higher AWC expenditures than present coal plants.
The International Energy Agency has set up a scenario to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.
McIlvaine has its own scenario with a higher reliance on biomass with carbon capture and sequestration ( BECCS).
The McIlvaine scenario would also end up with net zero CO2 in 2050 but with a different combination of fuels.
BECCS has twice the CO2 reduction impact of nuclear due to removal of CO2 from the air prior to burning and sequestration. Solar and wind have a smaller impact on a net CO2 reduction basis per GW due to their lower capacity factors.
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Differences Between IEA and McIlvaine Forecasts
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Fuel
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McIlvaine/IEA difference GW
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Net impact on CO2 in equivalent coal GW
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Bioenergy with CCS
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800
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1600
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Nuclear
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-100
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-100
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bioenergy
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-200
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-200
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Solar
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-2400
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-700
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Wind
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1500
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-600
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Net
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0
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The technologies to provide high capacity factor electricity such as nuclear, coal, BECCS, hydrogen and geothermal require lots of AWC Products. This is illustrated on a comparison per kW.
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Revenues for AWC Products
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Power Technology
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AWC Relative Revenues/kWh
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Coal
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1
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BECCS
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2.5
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Nuclear
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1.2
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Hydro
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0.3
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Hydrogen
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2.5
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Wind
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0.02
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Combined Cycle
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0.5
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Geothermal
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0.7
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Solar
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0.01
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Markets and projects involving power plant AWC are covered in detail in McIlvaine publications.
The Utility Tracking System provides weekly project coverage along with profiles of thousands of AWC purchasers.
http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/databases/42ei-utility-tracking-system
There are market forecasts for instrumentation, pumps, valves, FGD, SCR, cross flow membranes, liquid microfiltration, fabric filters, precipitators, fans, and compressors described under www.mcilvainecompany.com and then markets at the top of the page.
Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391.
rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com
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