FGD & DeNOx Insights No

FGD & DeNO_xInsights
No. 33 August 2014

WELCOME

This bi-weekly FGD & DeNOx Insights provide excerpts from the McIlvaine FGD & DeNOx World Markets. It also provides excerpts from related publications. The market report provides the latest forecasts, market shares and insights relative to technology and opportunities.

Revenues for FGD suppliers will average about $5 billion per year over the next five years. This will be split between upgrades of existing systems and new systems. This is the latest forecast in McIlvaine FGD Market and Strategies . (www.mcilvainecompany.com)

Traditionally, most of the market has been for new systems. The maturity of the market is established with the even split between new systems and upgrades by 2020.

The major markets for new FGD are now in Asia. More than 70 percent of the new FGD orders in 2015 will be placed for Chinese power plants.

There is a large market developing to upgrade existing FGD systems. The biggest upgrade market will be China. The government has identified 100,000 MW of FGD which must be upgraded. Adding an extra spray section will be one of the upgrade measures.

This forecast does not include consumables such as lime and limestone. Expenditures for these consumables have risen steadily and will continue to do so at a rate of approximately 5 percent per year until 2020. After 2020, consumables expenditure growth will slow as the number of new coal-fired power plants built each year will be reduced and there will be increasing retirements of coal-fired power plants in Europe and the U.S.

This forecast is based on the assumption that a greenhouse gas reduction program is implemented. There are mixed signals regarding the future of this program. The U.S. has proposed a carbon trading program for coal-fired power plants which will result in retirement of nearly 50,000 MW of coal-fired capacity (20% of the existing fleet). Australia has just repealed its carbon tax citing the high cost and lack of perceived benefits.

This forecast is also based on the continued success of the program to extract gas from shale. As long as gas prices remain at around $4-5/MMBtu, gas will be the preferred fuel for new power plants. The U.S. is likely to generate all the gas it needs internally and will be able to export some quantity. China has launched a big program to produce gas from coal. This gas will be transported across the country and will fuel gas turbine plants in Eastern cities.

The Chinese gas-to-coal program will have the effect of reducing the longer range traditional FGD market. However, a very large air pollution market will be created to capture the H₂S and particulate caused by the coal gasification process.

· Webinar on May 1 Concludes that Hot Gas Filtration is a Great Solution for Old Power Plants But EPRI Says — Not So Fast

· Supreme Court Upholds EPA’s Authority to Regulate Smog from Coal-fired Power Plants

· U.S. Air Pollution Control Companies Can Adjust to the Shrinking Coal Market

· URS Awarded Contract to Install Mercury Control Technology at the Cayuga Operating Company’s Unit 2, in Lansing, New York

· Portuguese Power Plant Avoids SO₃ Excesses with High Temperature SCR Operation

The FGD & DeNOx Newsletter is included in two services. For more information, click on:

This includes only projects where there was an update during the month. There are thousands of projects in the database.

This includes only projects where there was an update during the month. There are thousands of projects in the database.

Project Title	First Entry Date	Location	Startup date
Bin Qasim power plant	7/1/2014	Pakistan	2018
Jaworzno power plant-Tauron	7/1/2013	Poland	2019
Thar II power plant-Karachi Electric Supply/Sindh Engro Coal Mining	5/1/2013	Pakistan	2019
Mariveles expansion-GN Power	3/1/2013	Philippines	2018
CHP5 Ulaanbaatar CFB power plant	7/1/2012	Mongolia	2018
Nam Dinh 1 CFB power plant--Vinacomin	1/1/2010	Vietnam	2020
Yamunanagar (Panipat) supercritical addition-Haryana Power Generation	11/1/2009	India	Unknown
Barakah 1-4 nuclear power plant	6/1/2009	United Arab Emirates	2020
Masinloc 2-AES Philippines	9/1/2007	Philippines	2018
Chhattisgarh (Lara) 1,2 ultra mega power project-NTPC	1/1/2005	India	2016
Holcomb (Garden City)(Sand Sage)supercritical power plant-Sunflower Electric	11/1/2001	KS	Unknown
Pagbilao 3 CFB expansion-Aboitiz Power and TeaM Energy Philippines	11/1/2000	Philippines	2017

New power generation projects are tracked in two publications. Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation includes both market forecasts and project data. World Power Generation Projects has just the project data.

FGD Supplier Revenues ($ Billions)
Segment	2015	2020
New Systems	4	2
Upgrades	2	2