Coronavirus Technology Solutions
November 20, 2020

Herd Immunity with a Combination of Vaccines and CATE Masks

Three Million Americans are Now Infectious

Purifan Ceiling Filter is Being Sold to Homes, Schools, and Bars

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Herd Immunity with a Combination of Vaccines and CATE Masks

Future cases of COVID can be determined  by the reproduction number (RO pronounced “R naught”)  In the case of measles in an unvaccinated population it is a high as 18. Each infected person infects 18 others. Herd immunity occurs when the RO is below 1 as is the case when most people are vaccinated.  Presently the RO for COVID in some countries is as high as 3. The calculation is that when herd immunity reaches 70% the disease will start disappearing.

There are a number of variables relative to immunity through vaccines including the efficiency and length of protection. Given the recent announcements relative to vaccines we can guesstimate that 20% of the world population could be vaccinated by July 1. Over the following year the percentage could increase to 65%.

Mask use can compensate for the lack of vaccine with maximum deployment in the next six months and then steady reduction over the next 20 months. Many people will refuse to take the vaccine. In poorer countries it is unlikely that the 65% vaccination level can be obtained in the next two years.

It is important to understand the big differences between masks.

CATE is an acronym for Comfortable, Attractive, Tight Fitting, Efficient. These masks have been available for many years to combat air pollution, wildfires and pollen. They are the ideal selection for the general public in the fight against COVID. This is not true of other mask types. Here are the numbers.

In a room where people are social distancing at six feet and MERV 8 filters are used in an HVAC system with three air changes per hour unmasked individuals will be generating a cloud of virus particles similar to perfume or cigarette smoke. If masks are worn by transmitters as well as recipients, the net protection is a combination of the performance of both masks.

The net effectiveness is a function of the potential capability of the mask minus failure to achieve a tight fit and periods where the mask is discarded due to discomfort or social drivers. When all is considered the CATE mask combination is 93% effective compared to only 49% for the cloth mask.

Mask type: CATE masks are generally reusable and have various features to make them  attractive, tight fitting and comfortable as well as efficient. Surgical masks are efficient but not tight fitting. N95 masks  can be fitted for a tight seal but when worn by general public they are often not used properly.  Cloth masks can excel in comfort and attractiveness but are loose fitting and inefficient.

Direct Leakage: This is the amount of air which is exhaled around the mask directly.

Re-entrainment: Droplets initially captured on masks evaporate and split causing virus to escape.

Penetration: This relates to the efficiency of the filter media.

Use Discount: Masks should be worn as appropriate. Cloth and CATE masks are more comfortable than the others and are more likely to be used in borderline situations.

Recipient Load: This is the virus escaping the transmitter mask.

In Leakage: This is the amount inhaled around the mask seals.

There is no question that tight fitting efficient masks are the most effective weapon against COVID. These masks prevented any  U.S. medical staff fighting Ebola to become infected. The COVID incidence among medical personnel in high COVID environments is very low. In cases where these personnel had no choice but loose fitting surgical masks the infection rate was high. If a comfortable, attractive version is available to the general public the battle can be easily won.

So combining CATE masks and vaccines is a winning combination.  CATE masks have a 7% inefficiency factor. So when 20% are vaccinated you need 57% wearing masks to reach the 70% herd immunity.  If 6 billion of the 8 billion people in the world need to be masked or vaccinated then 3.4 billion people will need masks through July of next year. This number decreases over the next 12 months to just 720 million people.  (These estimated do not take into account the people who are immune because they were infected.  Nor those who take the vaccine but are not immune. These may not be entirely offsetting.)

Because CATE masks are reusable it is not an insurmountable challenge to supply masks for billions of people. Longer term the market could fall to 720 million people wearing three masks per year at $30 per mask or $64.8 billion.  This does not include masks needed for air pollution, pollen, and wildfire protection.

The technical analyses of masks and filters are found in Coronavirus Technology Solutions Click here for more information

Custom market research is also available. Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391 or rmcilvaine@mcilvainecompany.com

Three Million Americans are Now Infectious

More than three million people in the United States have active coronavirus infections and are potentially contagious, according to a new estimate from infectious-disease experts tracking the pandemic. That number is significantly larger than the official case count, which is based solely on those who have tested positive for the virus.

According to an article today in the Washington Post, the vast — and rapidly growing — pool of coronavirus-infected people poses a daunting challenge to the governors and mayors in hard-hit communities who are trying to arrest the surge in cases. Traditional efforts such as testing, isolation of the sick and contact tracing can be overwhelmed when a virus spreads at an exponential rate, especially when large numbers of asymptomatic people may be walking around without even knowing they are infectious.

To put the 3 million-plus figure in perspective: It is close to 1 percent of the population. It is about equal to the number of public school teachers in the entire country, or the number of truck drivers. If the University of Michigan’s football stadium were packed with a random selection of Americans, about a thousand of them would be contagious right now.

Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said his team’s model estimated that 3.6 million people are infected and shedding enough virus to infect others. That’s a 34 percent week-to-week increase that followed a 36 percent increase in the previous seven-day average, he said.

The estimate does not include an approximately equal number of latent infections among people who caught the virus in recent days and can’t pass it on yet because it is still incubating.

It’s bad; it’s really, really bad,” Shaman said. “We’re running into Thanksgiving now and that’s only going to make it worse. We’re going to go through a lot of people being infected between now and the end of the year, unfortunately.”

Separately, modelers at the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimated Tuesday that approximately 3.2 million people have been infected just since Election Day, Nov. 3, a figure significantly larger than the approximately 1.95 million official cases tracked over the same period by The Washington Post through reports from state health departments.

When do you want to hit the brakes? That’s the question,” said Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist at IHME who is among many scientists and doctors urging action by the government and general public to reverse the trend lines. “When you have a fire, you send the firetruck. You don’t wait and say, ‘Okay, let me wait a little bit, maybe that fire isn’t going to spread that much.’ . . . We already moved into exponential growth. Just hit the brakes as soon as you can.”

This fall wave of infections and hospitalizations is different in several ways from the one last spring. The outbreaks are widespread now, with 49 states showing rising coronavirus hospitalizations, in contrast to the spring’s concentration of cases in the Northeast and a few large cities. Doctors are better at treating severe cases of covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, and so it is less likely to be fatal. 

But the biggest difference is that this fall wave is still swelling and is probably many weeks from cresting. This pandemic is following the seasonal pattern of the 1918 influenza pandemic, the worst such plague in U.S. history, in which the autumn wave was worse than the first one in the spring of that year. Even after more than 11 million confirmed infections since early in the year, more than 8 in 10 people in the United States remain susceptible to the coronavirus, experts estimate.

The non-tested cohort includes people who have no symptoms but will in coming days. It also includes people who will never develop symptoms. And it includes people who have symptoms but don’t want to deal with the consequences of a positive test, such as being forced to miss work or become isolated from their social network.

What happens next depends on public awareness of the reality of the emergency and the willingness of state and local officials to respond in a manner commensurate with the crisis while also acceptable to people suffering from pandemic fatigue.

Despite lower mortality rates, the dramatic rise in infections that began in September has seen a delayed echo in the rise of the death toll. More than a thousand people are dying daily on average, and the country is nearing 250,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic.

Although the surge of infections this fall has in some measure been due to colder weather and people congregating indoors, it has also been because of human behavior — specifically, the willingness of millions of people in the United States to ignore public health guidelines on facial coverings and social distancing. What is happening across the country is not inevitable, experts say.

The current strategy in many states — patchwork restrictions, combined with widespread public disregard of public health guidelines — portends a brutal winter for the country in which hospitals could be strained to their limits or beyond, something that is already happening in the Dakotas and other communities of the Upper Midwest and Great Plains, as well as El Paso.

“We’re getting the herd immunity strategy whether we want it or not,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist at the University of California at Irvine. “We have a totally out- of-control epidemic and we are taking baby steps.”

The only period comparable to the current one in terms of the size of the infected cohort was in late March and early April. Tests were hard to come by early in the pandemic. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimated that the number of infected people was 10 times the official count.

Now the multiplier is surely lower — the model developed by Columbia University researchers uses 5.5. By that measure, as many as 10 million people in the United States have been infected in the past two weeks.

Researchers at IHME estimate the number of daily new infections by working backward from the known numbers of deaths. The institute relies on an estimated infection fatality rate of 0.6 percent across all populations, Mokdad said.

These are models, and they rely on a series of assumptions about a virus for which much remains unknown — including how long, exactly, a person who is infected will remain contagious.

But the big picture is clear.

“We’re going in the wrong direction,” Shaman said.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/covid-3-milliion-plus-infected/2020/11/18/d9f079a8-2849-11eb-8fa2-06e7cbb145c0_story.html

Purifan Ceiling Filter is Being Sold to Homes, Schools, and Bars

The Purifan five-layer filter captures particulates and odors using EPA-recommended filtering media technology. It uses recycled paper, HEPA-level particulate filters, and there is activated charcoal in three of the five layers. There are no electrically-charged particles put into the air, and no free-floating ions or Ozone added to the room.

Purifan’s  filtration system contains a polyester pre-filter to capture large particles like pet hair, dust, and carpet fibers. The second layer is an activated carbon filter, which absorbs odors and gases, then there’s a nanoparticle filter which al so has activated carbon to further capture odor-causing particles. The nanoparticle media consists of activated charcoal that has been crushed only a few nanometers in diameter, increasing its odor-absorbing surface by 10,000 times. The fourth layer is a HEPA filter, which traps particles as small as .3 microns, and the final layer is another activated carbon filter, which gets rid of any remaining pollutants or odors. 

 Purifans in a 20 x 40 foot classroom

·         Total installed cost for two Purifans and motors = less than $1,200 (about $60 per student one time)

·         Two filter changes per year for each unit = $180 total (about $9 – $10 per student annually)

·         One school using Purifans reported the average student took 11 fewer sick days per year. For parents, their employers, teachers, and administrators, that’s worth far more than $10 per year.

·         Bars  and Clubs

1. Part of the total cost of owning a smoke and odor solution is the operating expense. One electrostatic smoke eater can add $300 or more to a club’s monthly electricity bill, and many clubs have multiple units. The energy-efficient Purifan is totally silent and uses only half an amp of electricity, the same as a 60-watt bulb, even when running on high. Compare this to electrostatic models which are loud and can draw 8 to 10 amps when operating on high.
2. Low Maintenance Costs
   Just on monthly maintenance alone, Purifans can save a lot of money for the bar or club. Most electrostatic smoke removal solutions require monthly cleaning, and typically require expensive repairs after only a couple of years. All that’s needed to keep a Purifan running like new is regular filter changes. There’s no cleaning needed because the filters are disposable. There are no tools required, and you can change the filter yourself in minutes. Depending on the number of units in a room and the density of smokers, Purifan filters last three or four months, and longer when smoking levels are lower during slow business periods.
   
   

Purifan announced a new optional upgrade package that adds a Purifan Certified UVC Germicidal Light Kit to kill viruses quickly when aerosolized droplets are captured in the five- stage filter system. Purifan’s Ceiling Mounted Air Filtration Systems have been removing tiny particles and smoke from the room air since 1998. Over 50,000 have been installed, mostly through customer referrals.

Upgraded with a UVC 253.7 nanometer Germicidal light, the Purifan kills any live viruses, bacteria or germs in a few minutes of exposure.

Many scientists and research groups have published studies that report COVID19 can also be spread in public places, by the microscopic moisture droplets that can float in the air in the room for an extended time. This happens in offices, nursing homes, businesses, classrooms, stores, day cares, bars and restaurants. These microscopic droplets are created by normal exhaling, talking, singing, yelling, coughing or sneezing, and some of these moisture droplets attach to floating dust particles in the air. Then these droplets can be inhaled or deposit on the surface of the eyes to infect the healthy people in the room up to 20-30 feet away. Tracking studies on COVID spread have shown these particles emitted by a contagious person, drift freely on air currents in the room. Tracking investigations showed that people in the room can be infected more than 20 feet away from the sick person.

Purifans are powerful air filtration systems that mount to the ceiling, exactly like a normal ceiling fan. A single Purifan typically filters all the air in a 20 x 20 x 8 foot area once every 90 seconds. Purifans produce a powerful 2,200 CFM airflow pattern pulling the moisture droplets and other airborne particles or smoke up and into their five stage filter system, capturing the moisture droplets in the filters. Once the moisture droplets are captured in the Purifan filters they dehydrate, and the risk of aerosolized spread is substantially reduced or eliminated. Purifans use disposable 5 layer filters including .3 micron paper filter media and activated charcoal filter media to capture particulates, odors and Volatile Organic Chemicals. Filters are replaced 3 or 4 times per year in most office or business applications. Filters are replaced two times per year in a typical classroom. Purifans produce no ozone or ionic particles that are considered unhealthy to people in the room.

Purifan option UVC Light Kit Upgrade shines a proven virus-killing, UVC 253.7 nanometer, germicidal light onto the surface of the filters in the Purifan, killing any live viruses, bacteria or germs in a few minutes of exposure. The very specific 253.7 wavelength of UVC light, interacts with the DNA of any virus or bacteria and damages its ability to replicate and survive. Purifans use these UVC Germicidal lights to kill viruses and bacteria on the surface of the filters. There are many proven uses of UVC light to disinfect areas like hospital rooms, surgery areas and doctors’ offices.

Purifans are silent, high-capacity, ceiling mounted air filtration systems that filter a 20 by 20 foot area, 40 times per hour to reduce the number of airborne fine particulates by 90% or more.

In addition to thousands of Purifan installations in bars and Veterans Clubs, homes, offices, and businesses, Purifans have been installed in classrooms in over 50 schools starting in 2005. In every case, the teachers and students saw a significant reduction in missed school days due to the spread of seasonal colds and flu, which have similar spread patterns like COVID19.

After Purifans were installed in classrooms and hallways, reported attendance records of some of these schools reported the following:

·         the annual missed school days for children was reduced by as much as 61%,

·         teachers had 50% fewer sick days,

·         a 70% reduction in children needing to use their inhaler based on logs kept at the school nurse’s station.

Scholastic test results also improved dramatically for the children in these Purifan-equipped schools because the children missed fewer sick days and they were able to keep up with classwork. Parents and teachers also reported many children were able to stop taking mind- numbing allergy medications they needed daily before the Purifans were installed.

Schools reported up to a 61% reduction in student sick days, a 50% reduction in teacher sick days and a 70% drop in inhaler use by students.

Purifan management believes the entire cost of installing Purifans and changing the filters and UVC lights in elementary school classrooms will be recovered by the substantial financial payback to Medicaid Health Costs for Children. Since the annual savings far exceed the costs, the company believes that Medicaid Insurance Program or other designated Federal Funding should pay for the installation, and the expendables cost for filters and the new UVC germicidal bulbs. The projected payback is typically calculated at over 20 to 25 times the cost. That payback does not go to the school’s budget, it goes to Medicaid, private health insurers, the families, and their employers. The savings comes from reduced health costs for the Medicaid insured children in the classrooms. When Purifans filter allergens out of the school air, allergy and Asthma related health costs to Medicaid are substantially reduced. Now with the potential

Purifans are also suited for Retail Stores, Pharmacies, Waiting Areas. They are quiet, overhead and out of the way.

Purifans will help Medicaid-insured children to have reduced needs for doctors visit, testing, prescription drugs, inhalers and other more serious health issues like Asthma or a COVID-like infection and hospitalization. This can save Medicaid more than 25 times the cost of funding the Purifans in schools on an annual basis.

Purifans are ideal for many small businesses, stores, pharmacies, barber shops, hair and nail salon, retail stores, dry cleaners, waiting rooms, gyms, day cares and office areas, where the goal is to protect the employees, and make the customers feel like everything is being done to reduce the risk of aerosolized spread of COVID 19.